上周连续发生三个重大事件:七国集团首脑会议、慕尼黑安全会议特别会议(美、英、法、德、欧盟和北约最高领导人悉数到场)和美日澳印四国外长会议。在这些重要会议上,拜登新政府发出了“America is back”的强烈信号,并强调中国对美国和整个西方“自由民主”世界构成严峻挑战。美欧是传统的西方阵营,而日本、澳大利亚和印度在地理上虽然位于东方,但在政治上却属于西方。一时间,一个以美国为首的西方(美欧日澳印)对华统一战线似乎正呼之欲出。

2月22日,慕尼黑安全会议主席Wolfgang Ischinger参加了一场由柏林Hertie行政学院(Ischinger兼任该校教授)组织的网络研讨会,就2月19日特别会议的情况与该校师生交流。DCF研究所创始人成朝庭先生利用这个机会向Ischinger提出了如下问题:

“在慕尼黑安全会议特别会议上,拜登总统声称,世界正面临着民主与专制的根本选择,中国是美国的长期战略和体制竞争对手。为此,他敦促英法德三国与美国保持一致。您如何评估形成以美国为首的反华统一战线的可能性?德国在这一战线中的作用是什么?”

Ischinger答复如下:

“我知道我们需要简明扼要,但你的问题确实值得更全面的回答。很明显,美国和欧洲在中国问题方面的利益并不是完全一致的。美国在远东有肩负重任的军事联盟,而我们则没有。但我们(欧美)有强烈的利益重叠,我们都认为中国是一个体制性对手或竞争者。但我们也认为,如拜登总统所言,在某些领域我们可以与中国合作。我希望华盛顿和欧盟之间能够密切协作,这当然符合大家的利益。我觉得中国不应将其看作是一种咄咄逼人的反华行径。在网络领域、公平竞争的投资环境、不公平的贸易行为、维吾尔人、香港以及人权问题等方面,美国和欧洲的利益几乎完全相同。因此,这不是反华,而是承认大西洋两岸拥有共同战略利益,要尽可能地密切协调。当然,在如何最好地与中国打交道以及如何尽可能地与中国合作方面,总是相当不容易的。”

Ischinger不愧是一位曾经担任德国驻英和驻美大使的资深外交官,他的答复不乏外交辞令。那么,实际情况到底如何?DCF研究所为此特别在Clubhouse上组织了一场讨论,从经济、政治、地缘战略和意识形态及价值观等维度出发,对中美(西方)对抗的前因后果和前景影响进行了全面深刻的分析。本次讨论长达9小时,以下是讨论部分内容的音频:

附成先生与Wolfgang Ischinger主席问答英文原文:

Date: 22 Feb. 2021

Venue: Beyond Westlessness? Reflections on the MSC Special Edition 2021

Chaoting Cheng:
During the special session of Munich Security Conference, President Biden has claimed that the world is facing a fundamental choice between democracy and autocracy and China is the long term strategic and systemic competitor of the U.S. Therefore, he has urged UK, France, and Germany to stay together with the U.S. How do you assess the likelihood of forming a U.S.-led united front against China? What is the role of Germany in this front?

Wolfgang Ischinger:
You want me to respond right away?

Chaoting Cheng:
Yes, please.

Wolfgang Ischinger:
Well, I know we need to be brief, your question actually deserves far more comprehensive reply. Obviously, American and European interests regarding China are not identical. America has military alliances with responsibilities in the Far East, we don’t. But we have strongly overlapping interests, we agreed today that China is a systemic rival or competitor, but we also agreed, when you read what Biden has said, that there are areas to cooperate with China. Hopefully, working out on functioning cooperation and coordination between Washington and the European Union is certainly in everybody’s interest, and I don’t think that China should think of this as an aggressive anti-Chinese approach. We have very similar interests in many many areas when you think of Cyber, when you think of level playing field in investment, when you think of unfair trade practices, when you think of human rights, yes, indeed, American and European interests are almost, if not totally, identical, when we talk about the Uyghurs, when we talk about Hong Kong, when we talk about other human rights issues. So, this is not anti-China, but is a recognition that there is a strategic interest on both sides of the Atlantic to coordinate as closely as we can, this is always not very easy on how best to deal with China and how to work with China wherever it is possible.